It’s the take heard ‘round the [extremely specific and very small portion of the] world.
God bless Matt Doyle, a person who I am entertained by in equal parts by his ability to pick up on little things that a lot of other people miss, and his all-encompassing need to piss people off at every turn. He went on to explain that for him, Matt Turner should be the current USMNT No. 1 keeper. And he provided plenty of explanation for how he reached that conclusion, as well, which included the different shot-stopping abilities of the two keepers, how they distribute the ball, and so on. This was the quote, however, that did USMNT Internet like a gender reveal in California.
I’m going to get a couple things off my chest here: I like Doyle, and furthermore, I think he is a good and very smart writer and opinion-haver, just as I think plenty of people who disagree with him are very smart writers and opinion-havers. If your opinion boils down to “he clearly doesn’t know anything,” either read more or get another hobby. I’m not interested.
I think that most people are uncomfortable with this opinion from the man himself because, even if they disagree with it, they have to confront some uncomfortable truths. Because here is an uncomfortable truth: Doyle is correct about the two keepers and their MLS careers.
Zack Steffen, in MLS, was a fairly average shot-stopper. He made some pretty good saves. He also let in some soft goals. And, thanks to the good folks at American Soccer Analysis, we can see that throughout his career, the numbers bear out the fact that Steffen was fairly average at helping out his team’s Expected Goals Allowed vs. their actual Goals Allowed over the years. There’s a bunch of fancy tables you can look at right here, if you’re so inclined. Where Steffen did excel, which Doyle also mentioned, was in penalty kicks. Saving a penalty being one of the most impressive things a keeper can do on most days, Steffen made a habit of doing just that, and doing it in big moments. In the U-20 World Cup Round of 16. In MLS playoffs, against Atlanta United. Zack Steffen is really, really good at penalties.
Matt Turner doesn’t have that same penalty record. What he does have is a kind of unbelievable consistency to perform really, really well for a team that is… well, awful on the defensive side of the ball.
Last season, Matt Turner was far and away the best keeper in the league in terms of xGoals, posting up a -8.29 (to Steffen’s -1.54). The year before that, in his first year as a pro, he was fourth best in the league at -5.65 (Steffen was at +1.64, suggesting he actually let in more goals than he should have). The New England Revolution qualifying for last year’s playoffs was less a team figuring out how to scrape out results when they mattered and more a mother’s adrenline allowing her to lift a car off of her child. Turner is the mother. The child was the rest of the team. He knows how to stop the ball from going into the net in a way that reminds me of Bill Hamid, but without Hamid’s tendency to be streaky. And, like Doyle said, Turner isn’t bad with the ball at his feet, either.
Using xGoals as the end-all of judging a goalkeeper is a slippery way to go about things, but when I look at the teams that Steffen and Turner have played on, I’m inclined to agree with Doyle that what Turner has done in MLS is far more impressive than Steffen’s tenure here, and it’s extremely difficult to argue in good faith that the question isn’t at least open for debate.
Here’s the thing, though: I still think Zack Steffen should be starting for the U.S.
I know! I just used a bunch of numbers that say that Turner is better than Steffen in MLS! And if you look at Steffen’s numbers for Fortuna in the Bundesliga last year, you’ll see that those aren’t very impressive either, despite that triple-save that we all got really excited about! I like Matt Turner a lot. I think he should easily be the US No. 2 right now. But I’m still Team Steffen at the moment, and here’s why: Pep and the folks at Manchester City really do seem to think that he’s going to be the one that pushes Ederson.
If Manchester City and Pep didn’t believe in Zack Steffen, this would be a different story. If they sold him off to Fortuna Dusseldorf, this conversation would be much more even. But they clearly do believe those things, and you know they believe those things because it’s Zack Steffen on Premier League benches, and it’s Zack Steffen taking the games for Cup ties, and it’s Zack Steffen that Pep Guardiola is sticking up for in interviews about goals he let in. I am willing to concede that Pep is smarter than me at soccer, you know?
Gregg Berhalter has shown, repeatedly, that he wants his goalkeeper to be able to play the ball and play the ball well. And Zack Steffen is sitting under one of the world’s premier goalkeepers at doing just that, playing for a coach who wants exactly that. If he can add just a tiny bit of Ederson’s ability with his feet to the strengths he already has in penalties and clear leadership qualities, I think Steffen becomes a premier goalkeeper. I really do. And I think that he’s ideally positioned for club and country success exactly where he’s at right now.
I think, most of the time, judging a player is not so simple at looking at the club he plays for and saying “oh, this player must be good, this player must be bad.”
But sometimes, it is.
Apropos of Nothing At All
The Dest Redemption Arc
This is very funny and we can admit that it’s very funny, yes?
But also, this was nuts.
So let’s stop and think before we go and dive in all willy-nilly trying to slam dunk on people making fun of the first video when they couldn’t do that same trick in 100 tries. Fair is fair. The trolls have their content, and you have yours.